No.
The depression is not over.
I'll get back to you when it is, and I'll buy the Champagne.
By the way, this depression is bad enough that even the French are buying less Champagne.
Note that during the Great Depression, the then-government announced 32 times during the course of the depression that it was over.
It was actually over the thirty-second time it was announced.
And if you're curious, a good bankruptcy lawyer is happier during a boom than a bust. During a boom, bunches of clients drop in to scrape off the debt incurred in starting their goofy business that almost worked. So they need to get rid of the debt so they can start over with a slightly different goofy business.
And eventually, IT WORKS, and the bankruptcy lawyer has a client for life, but now a business client.
For a potential debtor with no income, no assets, no wedding bells, and no prospects, there's no particular motivation to file a bankruptcy case. It's not going to get a lot worse.
The motivation crops up when there's a job or a marriage on the horizon that provides a cash flow that will be garnished by the existing crop of creditors.
And there are fewer marriages during a depression, because men aren't as stupid or shiftless as we look (we couldn't be, now could we?).
The reason there are fewer marriages is simple; guys don't want to promise things they can't deliver, if they can avoid it. The marriage rate (and age of first marriage) in Ireland was the lowest and oldest, respectively, in Europe for many years. When Ireland became the Celtic Tiger of the European Economy, the marriage rate went up and the age of first marriage went down.
Note that in the current U.S. economy, it's so bad that DIVORCES are down. That's pretty obvious if you think about it. If you can't support one household, it's that much more difficult to support two.
And there are some indications that Mexico is about to run out of oil. When and if that happens, Mexico will face massively rising inflation because it will become a net importer of oil, not a net exporter.
Do you think that will be better for Mexico?
Probably a bad thing for the economy of any country. Certainly a bad thing for the stability of any country to depend on other countries to supply energy for it.
Now, the current depression puts people to a rough decision. Normally, it would make sense to get another college degree or certificate of some kind if you can't find a great job now. On the other hand, if this depression lasts long enough, a college graduate will have one heck of a time finding money to pay off the student loans that can't be scraped off in a bankruptcy.
And that's one reason I wrote the Just for Lawyers blog for graduating lawyers, who are not being hired in record numbers right now (it's a depression, you see).
The depression is not over.
I'll get back to you when it is, and I'll buy the Champagne.
By the way, this depression is bad enough that even the French are buying less Champagne.
Note that during the Great Depression, the then-government announced 32 times during the course of the depression that it was over.
It was actually over the thirty-second time it was announced.
And if you're curious, a good bankruptcy lawyer is happier during a boom than a bust. During a boom, bunches of clients drop in to scrape off the debt incurred in starting their goofy business that almost worked. So they need to get rid of the debt so they can start over with a slightly different goofy business.
And eventually, IT WORKS, and the bankruptcy lawyer has a client for life, but now a business client.
For a potential debtor with no income, no assets, no wedding bells, and no prospects, there's no particular motivation to file a bankruptcy case. It's not going to get a lot worse.
The motivation crops up when there's a job or a marriage on the horizon that provides a cash flow that will be garnished by the existing crop of creditors.
And there are fewer marriages during a depression, because men aren't as stupid or shiftless as we look (we couldn't be, now could we?).
The reason there are fewer marriages is simple; guys don't want to promise things they can't deliver, if they can avoid it. The marriage rate (and age of first marriage) in Ireland was the lowest and oldest, respectively, in Europe for many years. When Ireland became the Celtic Tiger of the European Economy, the marriage rate went up and the age of first marriage went down.
Note that in the current U.S. economy, it's so bad that DIVORCES are down. That's pretty obvious if you think about it. If you can't support one household, it's that much more difficult to support two.
And there are some indications that Mexico is about to run out of oil. When and if that happens, Mexico will face massively rising inflation because it will become a net importer of oil, not a net exporter.
Do you think that will be better for Mexico?
Probably a bad thing for the economy of any country. Certainly a bad thing for the stability of any country to depend on other countries to supply energy for it.
Now, the current depression puts people to a rough decision. Normally, it would make sense to get another college degree or certificate of some kind if you can't find a great job now. On the other hand, if this depression lasts long enough, a college graduate will have one heck of a time finding money to pay off the student loans that can't be scraped off in a bankruptcy.
And that's one reason I wrote the Just for Lawyers blog for graduating lawyers, who are not being hired in record numbers right now (it's a depression, you see).
Leave a comment