Sometimes you read an article and say, "Yep. That's not complex; that's gonna happen, sure as shootin'".
At least, you say that if you're an old Arizona bankruptcy lawyer.
I just read a nifty article about the one of the next upcoming economic bubbles. I knew it was a funky industry, but I didn't know how bad things were.
The next bubble is American Higher Education.
There will be a few before and a few after, but it's clearly going to happen, and the bursting will be painful.
And here's the fairly obvious reason: what started as a Great Idea has turned into a scam to make obscene profits for investors in the Great Nondischargeable Student Loan Scam and to make brick-and-mortar universities rich, bloated and complacent.
Well, P.T. Barnum suggested that you can't fool all the people all of the time.
And soon enough, somebody is going to figure out that having a two-hundred thousand dollar debt for an undergraduate degree and post-graduate degrees in more elaborate ways to make bayberry candles ain't gonna be a big winner from an economic perspective. BECAUSE THERE ARE NO JOBS OUT THERE RIGHT NOW!!
Then enrollment at fat, happy, complacent and bloated Universities (that is one word, you know) all over the United States will fall to zip.
And when the economic dinosaurs of American Education fall, the tiny, agile mammals will rise...okay, I mean online education at a fair price.
You see, the lecture system of education came about because there were too few books in Italy.
So if you had actually
read the book, you could lecture about it, and you became The Professor!
Over years, the system of talking about books continued and became an institution, even though you can only listen at a couple of hundred words a minute, while you can read much, much faster.
And when there were plenty of books, the lecture system continued anyway, because otherwise a lot of professors would have had to get real jobs!
Now we don't need as many professors talking about books to educate folks. For one thing, there's a high-technology thing I like to call a video camera.
Once a lecture series has been delivered, it should be in the can (a phrase from the days when recording was done on film, and the film lived in a can; you had to be there) and a thing of beauty forever.
Most lecture series, even wonderful lecture series, are not recorded, to make repetitive work for professors.
Now, there came a point when we could mass-produce shoes.
So we did.
And a lot of cobblers got new jobs, and that was that.
So when I see that Universities are founded on economic sand, I have one word that describes the easy, simple, guaranteed solution: Amazon. Or competition, same thing.
Think about a system of higher education in which you can buy a book from Amazon. You can then read it, and become a professor yourself!
Oh, that's right. I guess there's something magical about the lecture process itself, which is why nobody ever ducks class and gets straight A's anyway!
If only there were some way that Amazon could, you know, sell lectures from the very best qualified, best reputed, and best credentialed Professors in the world!
Oh, wait.
It does! Now, there's great value to being able to talk to experts in a field, and there's a benefit to brick-and-mortar colleges and Universities.
But there's also a benefit to efficiency, and the mass-producing of education for the masses.
And the first very-high-end University with a super-duper reputation that decides to be a winner is the one that will put its programs online at a reasonable price, and it will smoke the competition by giving degrees to people who pass the same tests online that they would have passed inside the brick and mortar institution.
And that's more or less inevitable, because this is a depression, and the evil practice of making student loans nondischargeable in most bankruptcy situations won't make that a good area of investment if nobody coming out of schools can get jobs.
That will mean that nobody in their right minds will sign up for expensive schools, and the first winners will be the junior colleges, and the BIG winners will be the internationally famous schools that embrace the new business model and become publishers of video lecture series as they cut to a fraction of their previous on-campus populations.
Now, will bankruptcy cases happen as that process begins and continues?
I don't know. How many folks are currently employed at Universities?
And a tip of the hat to
Naked Law for its great article on this topic.
P.S. In Las Vegas, to squeeze the extra drop of blood out of suckers, they made it a criminal offense to fail to pay on a gambling marker, arguing that a signature by a half-drunk goofball surrounded by hot babes should be treated the same way as a hot check written by a professional check-kiting expert.
At some point, the nondischargeable characteristic of student loans will be seen the same way; a poor, moronic student with no idea of what he should do is sold a pig in a poke by a "counselor" who also gets him set up for a gigantic student loan.
Nice work, Universities! You are your own worst enemies. And you can't legislate around your upcoming demise, and that's fair; you did bad, and there's a better option to make people smart at a hugely lower price coming. In general, I think competition is a good thing, because it permits people to make the economic choices that will make them happy.
I'm not so wild about command economies; there's a reason that Cubans keep trying to make it to American soil. Communism is a great system, unless you have to survive under it. So far, the most committed Capitalists I have ever met have come from Communists countries that collapsed economically.
p.s. my daddy was a teacher, and his daddy was a teacher. I taught for a while at a private school and then a public school, and when I notices that I was starving, I decided that it wasn't for me. But I like going to school; I just think that education at every level should be available to everybody in the United States, and that competition should be allowed to make it fairly priced.
And inevitably, I'll get my wish on that issue, I think.
p.p.s. do I think student loans should be treated just like credit cards in a Chapter 7 bankruptcy in Arizona? Darn tootin'!
Are they? That's a big "no", my friends.